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11th Dynare Conference, Brussels, September 28-29, 2015
by Michel Juillard 13 May '15

13 May '15

CALL FOR PAPERS The 11th annual DYNARE Conference (http://www.dynare.org) will be held in Brussels at the National Bank of Belgium, on September 28-29, 2015. The conference is organized by the National Bank of Belgium together with Banque de France, DSGE-net, and the Dynare project at CEPREMAP. The DYNARE conference will feature the work of leading scholars in dynamic macroeconomic modeling and provide an excellent opportunity to present your own research results. Gianni Amisano (Federal Reserve Board) and Harald Uhlig (University of Chicago) will be plenary speakers. Submissions of papers dealing with different aspects of DSGE modeling and computational methods are all welcome. Papers using other software tools than DYNARE or theoretical contributions are also encouraged. Paper submission procedure: please send by email a complete manuscript or a detailed abstract in PDF format at conference(a)dynare.org Deadline for submissions is June 15, 2015. Authors of accepted papers will be informed by July 10, 2015. Accepted papers will be automatically considered for publication in the Dynare Working Papers series (http://www.dynare.org/wp) conditional on the agreement of the submitter. Note that publication in the Dynare WP does not prohibit submission to another working paper series. Contact: conference(a)dynare.org Conference organizers: Michel Juillard (Banque de France), Pelin Ilbas (National Bank of Belgium) and Raf Wouters (National Bank of Belgium). -- Michel Juillard

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Dyane Summer School 2015
by Stéphane Adjemian 27 Feb '15

27 Feb '15

Dear Dynare friends, The Dynare Summer School 2015 will take place from June 8 to June 12, 2015 in Paris, France. Goals of the Summer School The school will provide an introduction to Dynare and to Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) modeling. The courses will focus on simulation and estimation of DSGE models with Dynare. It will be also the occasion to introduce the new features in Dynare. This Summer school is aimed at beginners as well as at more experienced researchers. PhD students are encouraged to participate. Application Interested people should apply by sending an email to summerschool(a)dynare.org. Application should be done before April 3, 2015. You will have to attach a CV and a recent research paper (if you have any). We will confirm acceptance by April 17, 2015. People working in organizations member of DSGE-net (Bank of Finland, Banque de France, Capital Group, European Central Bank, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Norges Bank, Sverige Riksbank, Swiss National Bank) should register via their network representative. Registration Fee * Registration fee for academics (including lunches and one diner, but no accomodation): 150 € * Registration fee for financial institutions not member of DSGE-net (including lunches and one diner, but no accomodation): 1600 € Workshop Animators * Stéphane Adjemian (CEPREMAP and Université du Maine) * Houtan Bastani (CEPREMAP) * Michel Juillard (Banque de France) * Frédéric Karamé (CEPREMAP and Université du Maine) * Marco Ratto (Joint Research Centre, European Commission) * Sébastien Villemot (OFCE) This workshop is organized with the support of Banque de France, CEPREMAP and DSGE-net. Preliminary Program will be available soon on Dyane’s website. Workshop Venue Banque de France 31 rue Croix des Petits Champs 75001 Paris France Workshop Organization This is a “laptop only” workshop. Each participant is required to come with his/her laptop computer with MATLAB version 7.5 (R2007b) or above installed. We will provide WiFi access, but participants shouldn't rely on it to access a MATLAB license server at their own institution. As an alternative to MATLAB, it is possible to use GNU Octave (free software, compatible with MATLAB syntax; see http://www.dynare.org/download/octave for details on GNU Octave installation). Workshop Dressing Code Business casual. On behalf of the Dynare Team, Stéphane. -- Stéphane Adjemian Université du Maine, Gains & Dynare Team

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Course: Sensitivity and identification analysis with DYNARE
by Marco Ratto 12 Feb '15

12 Feb '15

Dear DYNARE Users, This is to announce that registrations are opened for the following Course. Kind regards, Marco Ratto ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Identification analysis and global sensitivity analysis for Macroeconomic Models. Apr 22, 2015 9:30 AM to Apr 24, 2015 17:00 PM Milan, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Italy Contact: Marco Ratto, marco.ratto(a)jrc.ec.europa.eu The scope of the course is to give a general introduction to methods of identification and global sensitivity analysis, their DYNARE implementation (identification toolbox and global sensitivity analysis toolbox) and their application to Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) macroeconomic models. The course will also provide a general introduction to DYNARE. The workshop will be animated by: S. Adjemian, M. Juillard, J. Maih, M. Ratto, A. Rossi and organized by the Joint Research Centre (JRC) of the European Commission and Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore (Milano). More info at: https://ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/node/32123 Instructions for registration: 1) Register or login to ECAS (the European Commission Authentication Service) from the link: https://web.jrc.ec.europa.eu/rem/ 2) Direct link to the registration page (when already registered to ECAS): https://web.jrc.ec.europa.eu/rem/app.html#/subscription-form-screen/meeting… -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

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Release of Dynare 4.4.3
by Stéphane Adjemian 31 Jul '14

31 Jul '14

Dear Dynare friends, We are pleased to announce the release of Dynare 4.4.3. This is a bugfix release. The Windows packages are already available for download at: http://www.dynare.org/download/dynare-stable The Mac and GNU/Linux packages (for Debian and Ubuntu LTS) should follow soon. This release is compatible with MATLAB versions 7.3 (R2006b) to 8.4 (R2014a) and with GNU Octave versions 3.6 to 3.8. Here is a list of the problems identified in version 4.4.2 and that have been fixed in version 4.4.3: - When loading a dataset in XLS, XLSX or CSV format, the first observation was discarded. - Reading data in an Excel-file with only one variable wasz leading to a crash. - When using the k_order_perturbation option (which is implicit at 3rd order) without the use_dll option, crashes or unexpected behavior could happen if some 2nd or 3rd derivative evaluates to zero (while not being symbolically zero) - When using external function, Ramsey policy could crash or return wrong results. - For Ramsey policy, the equation numbers associated with the Lagrange multipliers stored in M_.aux_vars were erroneously one too low - When updating deep parameters in the steady state file, the changes were not fully taken into account (this was only affecting the Ramsey policy). - When using external functions and the bytecode option, wrong results were returned (if second order derivates of the external functions were needed). - The confidence level for computations in estimation, conf_sig could not be changed and was fixed at 0.9. The new option mh_conf_sig is now used to set this interval - Conditional forecasts with non-diagonal covariance matrix used an incorrect decomposition of the covariance matrix. A Cholesky factorization is used. - Option geweke_interval was not effective, Dynare always defaulted to the standard value. - The mode_file option lacked backward compatibility with older Dynare versions. - Loading an mh_mode file with the mode_file option was broken. - Using identification with var_exo_det leaded to crashes (the preprocessor now returns an error if they are used simultaneously) - The identification command did not print results if the initial parameter set was invalid and then crashed later on if the MC sample is bigger than 1 - Inconsistencies between static and dynamic models leaded to crashes instead of error messages (only with block option). - The use of external functions crashed the preprocessor when the derivatives of the external function are explicitly called in the model block. The preprocessor now forbids the use of external functions derivates in the model block. - Using the block option when a variable does not appear in the current period crashed Dynare instead of providing an error message. On behalf of the Dynare Team, Stéphane Adjemian -- Université du Maine, Gains Dynare Team

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10th Dynare Conference
by Michel Juillard 04 May '14

04 May '14

The 10th Dynare Conference is kindly hosted by Bank of France in Paris and will take place September 18-19, 2014. The conference will feature the work of leading scholars in dynamic macroeconomic modeling and provide an excellent opportunity to present your own research results. Fabrice Collard (University of Bern) and Alejandro Justiniano (Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago) will be plenary speakers. Submissions of papers dealing with different aspects of DSGE modeling and computational methods are all welcome. Papers using other software tools than DYNARE or theoretical contributions are also encouraged. Accepted papers will be automatically considered for publication in the Dynare Working Papers series (http://www.dynare.org/wp) conditional on the agreement of the submitter. Note that publication in the Dynare WP does not prohibit submission to another working paper series. The submission deadline is June 14, 2014. Acceptance decisions will be sent by June 30, 2014. The Dynare conference is sponsored by Bank of France, DSGE-net and the DynareTeam at CEPREMAP. Kind regards, -- Michel Juillard

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Release of Dynare 4.4.2
by Sébastien Villemot 04 Mar '14

04 Mar '14

Dear Dynare friends, We are pleased to announce the release of Dynare 4.4.2. This is a bugfix release. The Windows packages are already available for download at: http://www.dynare.org/download/dynare-stable The Mac and GNU/Linux packages (for Debian and Ubuntu LTS) should follow soon. This release is compatible with MATLAB versions 7.3 (R2006b) to 8.2 (R2013b) and with GNU Octave versions 3.6 to 3.8. Here is a list of the problems identified in version 4.4.1 and that have been fixed in version 4.4.2: - Geweke convergence diagnostics was computed on the wrong sample if `mh_drop' was not equal to the default of 0.5. - The confidence level for computations in `estimation' (`conf_sig') could not be changed and was fixed at 0.9. - The `loglinear' option of `stoch_simul' was displaying the steady state of the original values, not the logged ones, and was producing incorrect simulations and simulated moments. Theoretical moments were unaffected. - The `optim' option of `estimation (for setting options to `mode_compute') was only working with at least MATLAB 8.1 (R2013a) or Octave 3.8. - For unit root models, theoretical HP filtered moments were sometimes erroneously displayed as NaN. - Specifying an endogenous variable twice after the `estimation' command would lead to a crash in the computation of moments. - Deterministic simulations were crashing on some models with more than one lead or one lag on exogenous variables. - Homotopy in stochastic extended path with order greater than 0 was not working correctly (during the homotopy steps the perfect foresight model solver was called instead of the stochastic perfect foresight model solver). - MCMC convergence diagnostics were not computed if `mh_replic' was less than 2000; the test now relies on the total number of iterations (this only makes a difference if option `load_mh_file' is used). On behalf of the Dynare Team, -- Sébastien Villemot Researcher in Economics Dynare developer http://www.dynare.org/sebastien

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Dynare Summer School 2014
by Sébastien Villemot 18 Feb '14

18 Feb '14

Dear Dynare friends, The Dynare Summer School 2014 will take place from June 9 to June 13, 2014 in Paris, France. Goals of the Summer School The school will provide an introduction to Dynare and to Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) modeling. The courses will focus on simulation and estimation of DSGE models with Dynare. It will be also the occasion to introduce the new features in Dynare 4.5 (still to be released). Junior Maih (Norges Bank) will be the guest speaker, and will present the Markov-Switching rational expectations modelling with the RISE toolbox. This Summer school is aimed at beginners as well as at more experienced researchers. PhD students are encouraged to participate. Application Interested people should apply online at: http://www.dynare.org/ocs/index.php/summerschool/ss2014/ Application should be done before March 21, 2014. You will have to upload a CV and a recent research paper. We will confirm acceptance by March 31, 2014. People working in organizations member of DSGE-net (Bank of Finland, Banque de France, Capital Group, European Central Bank, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Norges Bank, Sverige Riksbank, Swiss National Bank) should register via their network representative. Registration Fee * Registration fee for academics (including lunches and one diner, but no accomodation): 150 € * Registration fee for financial institutions not member of DSGE-net (including lunches and one diner, but no accomodation): 1600 € Workshop Animators * Stéphane Adjemian (CEPREMAP and Université du Maine) * Houtan Bastani (CEPREMAP) * Michel Juillard (Banque de France) * Frédéric Karamé (CEPREMAP and Université du Maine) * Junior Maih (Norges Bank) * Marco Ratto (Joint Research Centre, European Commission) * Sébastien Villemot (CEPREMAP) This workshop is organized with the support of Banque de France, CEPREMAP and DSGE-net. Preliminary Program See: http://www.dynare.org/ocs/index.php/summerschool/ss2014/schedConf/program Workshop Venue Banque de France 31 rue Croix des Petits Champs 75001 Paris France Workshop Organization This is a “laptop only” workshop. Each participant is required to come with his/her laptop computer with MATLAB version 7.5 (R2007b) or above installed. We will provide WiFi access, but participants shouldn't rely on it to access a MATLAB license server at their own institution. As an alternative to MATLAB, it is possible to use GNU Octave (free software, compatible with MATLAB syntax; see http://www.dynare.org/download/octave for details on GNU Octave installation). Workshop Dressing Code Business casual. On behalf of the Dynare Team, -- Sébastien Villemot Researcher in Economics Dynare developer http://www.dynare.org/sebastien

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Release of Dynare 4.4.1
by Sébastien Villemot 17 Jan '14

17 Jan '14

Dear Dynare friends, We are pleased to announce the release of Dynare 4.4.1. This release contains a few changes to the user interface and fixes various bugs. It also adds compatibility with Octave 3.8. The Windows packages are already available for download at: http://www.dynare.org/download/dynare-stable The Mac and GNU/Linux packages (for Debian and Ubuntu) should follow soon. All users are encouraged to upgrade. This release is compatible with MATLAB versions 7.3 (R2006b) to 8.2 (R2013b) and with GNU Octave versions 3.6 to 3.8. * Changes to the user interface: - The syntax introduced in 4.4.0 for conditional forecast in a deterministic setup was removed, and replaced by a new one that is better suited to the task. More precisely, such deterministc forecast are no longer done using the `conditional_forecast' command. The latter is replaced by a group of commands: `init_plan', `basic_plan' and `flip_plan'. See the reference manual for more details. - Changes to the reporting module: option `annualAverages' to `addTable' has been removed (use option `tableDataRhs' to `addSeries' instead); option `vlineAfter' to `addTable' now also accepts a cell array. - Changes to the date and time series classes: implement broadcasting for operations (+,-,* and /) between `dseries' class and scalar or vectors; add the possibility of selecting an observation within a time series using a formatted string containing a date. * Bugs and problems identified in version 4.4.0 and that have been fixed in version 4.4.1: - In MS-SBVAR, there was a bug preventing the computation of impulse responses on a constant regime. - Under Octave, after modifying the MOD file, the changes were not taken into account at the first Dynare run, but only at the second run. On behalf of the Dynare Team, -- Sébastien Villemot Researcher in Economics Dynare developer http://www.dynare.org/sebastien

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Release of Dynare 4.4.0
by Sébastien Villemot 16 Dec '13

16 Dec '13

Dear Dynare users and friends, We are pleased to announce the release of Dynare 4.4.0. This major release adds new features and fixes various bugs. The Windows packages are already available for download at: http://www.dynare.org/download/dynare-stable The Mac and Debian/Ubuntu packages should follow soon. All users are strongly encouraged to upgrade. This release is compatible with MATLAB versions ranging from 7.3 (R2006b) to 8.2 (R2013b) and with GNU Octave version 3.6. Here is the list of major user-visible changes: * New major algorithms: - Extended path at order 1 and above, also known as “stochastic extended path”. This method is triggered by setting the `order' option of the `extended_path' command to a value greater than 0. Dynare will then use a Gaussian quadrature to take into account the effects of future uncertainty. The time series for the endogenous variables are generated by assuming that the agents believe that there will no more shocks after period t+order. - Alternative algorithms for computing decision rules of a stochastic model, based on the cycle reduction and logarithmic reduction algorithms. These methods are respectively triggered by giving `dr = cycle_reduction' or 'dr = logarithmic_reduction' as an option to the `stoch_simul' command. - Pruning now works with 3rd order approximation, along the lines of Andreasen, Fernández-Villaverde and Rubio-Ramírez (2013). - Computation of conditional forecast using an extended path method. This is triggered by the new option `simulation_type = deterministic' in the `conditional_forecast' command. In this case, the `expectation' command in the `conditional_forecast_paths' block has to be used to indicate the nature of expectations (whether shocks are a surprise or are perfectly anticipated). - Endogenous priors as in Christiano, Trabandt and Walentin (2011). Those are triggered by the new option `endogenous_prior' of the `estimation' command. * Other algorithmic improvements: - New command `model_diagnostics' to perform various sanity checks on the model. Note: in the past, some users may have used a preliminary MATLAB function implementing this; the new command has the same syntax, except that you shouldn't pass any argument to it. - Terminal conditions of perfect foresight simulations can now be specified in growth rates. More specifically, the new option `differentiate_forward_vars' of the `model' block will create auxiliary forward looking variables expressed in first differences or growth rates of the actual forward looking variables defined in the model. These new variables have obvious zero terminal conditions whatever the simulation context and this in many cases helps convergence of simulations. - Convergence diagnostics for single chain MCMC à la Geweke (1992, 1999). - New optimizer for the posterior mode (triggered by `mode_compute=10'): it uses the simpsa algorithm, based on the combination of the non-linear simplex and simulated annealing algorithms and proposed by Cardoso, Salcedo and Feyo de Azevedo (1996). - The automatic detrending engine has been extended to work on models written in logs. The corresponding trend variable type is `log_trend_var', and the corresponding deflator type is `log_deflator'. * New features in the user interface: - New set of functions for easily creating PDF reports including figures and tables. See the “Reporting” section in the reference manual for more details. - New MATLAB/Octave classes for handling time series. See the “Time series” section in the reference manual for more details. - Datafiles in CSV format can now be used for estimation. - New macro processor `length' operator, returns the length of an array. - New option `all_values_required' of `initval' and `endval' blocks: enforces initialization of all endogenous and exogenous variables within the block. - Option `ar' can now be given to the `estimation' command. - New options `nograph', `nointeractive' and `nowarn' to the `dynare' command, for a better control of what is displayed. - New option `nostrict' to the `dynare' command, for allowing Dynare to continue processing when there are more endogenous variables than equations or when an undeclared symbol is assigned in `initval' or `endval'. - The information on MCMC acceptance rates, seeds, last log posterior likelihood, and last parameter draw are now saved on the disk and can be displayed with `internals --display-mh-history' or loaded into the workspace with `internals --load-mh-history'. - New options `mode_check_neighbourhood_size', `mode_check_symmetric_plots' and `mode_check_number_of_points', for a better control of the diagnostic plots. - New option `parallel_local_files' of `model' block, for transferring extra files during parallel computations. - New option `clock' of `set_dynare_seed', for setting a different seed at each run. - New option `qz_zero_threshold' of the `check', `stoch_simul' and `estimation' commands, for a better control of the situation where a generalized eigenvalue is close to 0/0. - New `verbatim' block for inclusion of text that should pass through the preprocessor and be placed as is in the `modfile.m' file. - New option `mcmc_jumping_covariance' of the `estimation' command, for a better control of the covariance matrix used for the proposal density of the MCMC sampler. - New option `use_calibration' of the `estimated_params_init', for using the calibration of deep parameters and the elements of the covariance matrix specified in the `shocks' block as starting values for the estimation. - New option `save_draws' of the `ms_simulation' command. - New option `irf_plot_threshold' of the `stoch_simul' and `estimation' commands, for a better control of the display of IRFs which are almost nil. - New option `long_name' for endogenous, exogenous and parameter declarations, which can be used to declare a long name for variables. That long name can be programmatically retrieved in `M_.endo_names_long'. * Miscellaneous changes - The deciles of some posterior moments were erroneously saved in a field `Distribution' under `oo_'. This field is now called `deciles', for consistency with other posterior moments and with the manual. Similarly, the fields `Mean', `Median', `HPDsup', `HPDinf', and `Variance' are now consistently capitalized. - The console mode now implies the `nodisplay' option. * Bugs and problems identified in version 4.3.3 and that have been fixed in version 4.4.0: - In an `endval' block, auxiliary variables were not given the right value. This would not result in wrong results, but could prevent convergence of the steady state computation. - Deterministic simulations with `stack_solve_algo=0' (the default value) were crashing if some exogenous had a lag strictly greater than 1. - When using the `mode_file' option, the initial estimation checks were not performed for the loaded mode, but for the original starting values. Thus, potential prior violations by the mode only appeared during estimation, leading to potentially cryptic crashes and error messages. - If a shock/measurement error variance was set to 0 in calibration, the correlation matrix featured a 0 instead of a 1 on the diagonal, leading to wrong estimation results. - In the presence of calibrated covariances, estimation did not enforce positive definiteness of the covariance matrix. - Estimation using the `diffuse_filter' option together with the univariate Kalman filter and a diagonal measurement error matrix was broken. - A purely backward model with `k_order_solver' was leading to crashes of MATLAB/Octave. - Non-linear estimation was not skipping the specified presample when computing the likelihood. - IRFs and theoretical moments at order > 1 were broken for purely forward-looking models. - Simulated moments with constant variables was leading to crashes when displaying autocorrelations. - The `osr' command was sometimes crashing with cryptic error messages because of some unaccounted error codes returned from a deeper routine. - The check for stochastic singularity during initial estimation checks was broken. - Recursive estimation starting with the pathological case of `nobs=1' was crashing. - Conditional variance decomposition within or after estimation was crashing when at least one shock had been calibrated to zero variance. - The `estimated_params_init' and `estimated_params_bounds' blocks were broken for correlations. - The `filter_step_ahead' option was not producing any output in Bayesian estimation. - Deterministic simulations were sometimes erroneously indicating convergence although the residuals were actually NaN or Inf. - Supplying a user function in the `mode_compute' option was leading to a crash. - Deterministic simulation of models without any exogenous variable was crashing. - The MS-SBVAR code was not updating files between runs on Windows. This means that if a MOD file was updated between runs in the same folder and a `file_tag' was not changed, then the results would not change. - The `ramsey_policy' command was not putting in `oo_.planner_objective_value' the value of the planner objective at the optimum. * References: - Andreasen, Martin M., Jesús Fernández-Villaverde, and Juan Rubio-Ramírez (2013): “The Pruned State-Space System for Non-Linear DSGE Models: Theory and Empirical Applications,” NBER Working Paper, 18983 - Cardoso, Margarida F., R. L. Salcedo and S. Feyo de Azevedo (1996): “The simplex simulated annealing approach to continuous non-linear optimization,” Computers chem. Engng, 20(9), 1065-1080 - Christiano, Lawrence J., Mathias Trabandt and Karl Walentin (2011): “Introducing financial frictions and unemployment into a small open economy model,” Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 35(12), 1999-2041 - Geweke, John (1992): “Evaluating the accuracy of sampling-based approaches to the calculation of posterior moments,” in J.O. Berger, J.M. Bernardo, A.P. Dawid, and A.F.M. Smith (eds.) Proceedings of the Fourth Valencia International Meeting on Bayesian Statistics, pp. 169-194, Oxford University Press - Geweke, John (1999): “Using simulation methods for Bayesian econometric models: Inference, development and communication,” Econometric Reviews, 18(1), 1-73 On behalf of the Dynare Team, -- Sébastien Villemot Researcher in Economics Dynare developer http://www.dynare.org/sebastien

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DYNARE Course on Identification and Sensitivity analysis 2013
by Marco Ratto 10 Jun '13

10 Jun '13

Dear Dynare friends, The Course on Identification and Sensitivity Analysis for DSGE models 2013 will take place from September 16 to September 18, 2013 in Ispra, Italy. INFO http://ipsc.jrc.ec.europa.eu/events.php?idx=92 GOALS OF THE COURSE Scope of the course is to give a general introduction to methods of identification and global sensitivity analysis, their DYNARE implementation (identification toolbox and global sensitivity analysis toolbox) and their application to Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) macroeconomic models. Michel Juillard (Banque de France) and Sebastien Villemot (CEPREMAP) will be the guest speakers. This course is aimed at beginners as well as at more experienced researchers. PhD students are encouraged to participate. REGISTRATION Interested people should apply online. Follow the info at: http://ipsc.jrc.ec.europa.eu/events.php?idx=92 We strongly encourage to register *before July 31, 2013*. REGISTRATION FEE No fee is due WORKSHOP VENUE Joint Research Centre - European Commission 21027 Ispra (VA) Italy http://ec.europa.eu/dgs/jrc/ WORKSHOP ORGANIZATION This is a "portable only" workshop. Each participant is required to come with his/her portable computer with MATLAB version 7.0 or above installed. We will provide WiFi access, but participants shouldn't rely on it to access a MATLAB license server at their own institution. As an alternative to MATLAB, it is possible to use GNU Octave (free software, compatible with MATLAB syntax; seehttp://www.dynare.org/download/octave for details on GNU Octave installation). WORKSHOP ANIMATORS - Marco Ratto (Joint Research Centre, European Commission) - Christophe Planas (Joint Research Centre, European Commission) - Alessandro Rossi (Joint Research Centre, European Commission) - Michel Juillard (Banque de France) - Sébastien Villemot (CEPREMAP) -- Marco Ratto, Joint Research Centre The European Commission, TP 361, 21027 ISPRA(VA), ITALY Tel: +39 0332 78 9217 Fax: +39 0332 78 5733 marco.ratto(a)jrc.ec.europa.eu

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